Identity, payments, and data exchange are becoming compulsory national infrastructure. That changes the cost of compliance, the shape of competition, and who captures the value.
For most of the past decade, African DPI was a story of pilots and strategy papers. That phase is ending. Across the continent’s largest markets, governments are converting identity and payment systems into required infrastructure, backed by legislation and dated deadlines.
On September 16, Nigeria set December 2026 as the deadline to cover 95% of its population with a National Identification Number, which the NIMC Act 2026 now makes compulsory. Ethiopia requires every bank account to be linked to a Fayda digital ID by December 31, 2026. South Africa will stop recognising its green ID book in March 2028. The eight WAEMU states now require domestic card payments to clear through a regional switch rather than foreign networks.
Why governments are moving now
Three pressures are converging. First, fraud and fiscal leakage. South Africa’s Home Affairs tied its green ID deadline directly to identity fraud, and Nigeria’s government links NIN coverage to social protection, planning, and access to financial services. A verified identity layer makes tax registration, social transfers, and subsidy targeting cheaper and harder to defraud.
Second, scale. The systems now work. AfricaNenda’s most recent State of Inclusive Instant Payment Systems data counts 36 live instant payment systems, which processed 64 billion transactions worth $1.98 trillion in 2024. Ethiopia’s Fayda has passed 46 million registrations, and PAPSS volumes have risen roughly tenfold in a year.
Third, sovereignty. Governments increasingly want to own the rails that carry their citizens’ money and data. WAEMU’s card-routing rule, whose deadline for Visa and Mastercard falls this month, is explicitly designed to keep clearing inside the union. Namibia and Zambia have each switched on a national root of trust for digital signatures in the past six weeks.
Where the money is moving
DPI is also attracting new capital structures. Ethiopia has transferred its national ID programme into Faydaverse, a state-owned enterprise held by Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the roughly $45 billion sovereign fund that also owns Ethiopian Airlines and Ethio Telecom. That turns a donor-funded project into an asset expected to earn revenue from eKYC and authentication services.
Private capital is moving in alongside. Visa and Ethiopia’s ETTA Solutions on October 7 committed to jointly finance 148,000 contactless merchant devices. Banks in South Africa now run Home Affairs ID services in more than 515 branches. In each case, the private sector is building the distribution layer on top of public rails.
The risks operators should price
Mandatory systems carry execution risk. Nigeria’s register holds just over 140 million identities against a 95% coverage target for a population of more than 200 million, with less than three months to go. Kenya’s previous ID scheme, Huduma Namba, was struck down by the High Court after roughly KSh10 billion had been spent. Concentrated identity data raises cybersecurity and surveillance concerns that regulators and courts are still working through. And sovereignty rules can impose real switching costs on international payment providers and the merchants that depend on them.
Why It Matters: DPI deadlines are now compliance dates. Banks, telcos, insurers, and fintechs in Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, and WAEMU need onboarding, KYC, and payment stacks aligned to national rails within the next 6 to 18 months. The winners will be firms that build services on top of public identity and payment layers: credit scoring from verified transaction data, instant merchant acceptance, remote account opening. The exposure sits with business models that relied on fragmented identity, cash, or offshore payment clearing.
Key Developments
Policy · South Africa
South Africa Sets Hard Deadline to Retire the Green ID Book
Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber announced on October 1 that production of the green barcoded ID book will stop on March 31, 2027, and the document will cease to be valid identification on March 31, 2028. Around 14.7 million citizens and permanent residents still hold only the green book. Schreiber cited fraud risk as the primary driver, calling the paper document one of the most defrauded on the continent.
The deadline formalises a model built on bank distribution. Smart ID replacement is now offered in more than 515 bank branches, with that number expected to pass 1,000 by year-end, and first-time applicants and people over 60 remain exempt from fees. For banks, insurers, and lenders, the shift reduces identity fraud exposure and supports remote verification. It also creates a compliance task: customer records still anchored to green-book numbers will need updating before 2028. Watch for the digital ID layer Home Affairs has promised next, which would enable smartphone-based verification.
Payments · Pan-African · Egypt
PAPSS Volumes Jump Tenfold as the Network Shifts From Building to Selling
The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System reports transaction volumes up roughly 1,000% year on year, with value up about 120%. The network now spans more than 30 countries, 24 central banks, over 200 commercial banks and payment providers, and 16 national switches. Around 10 countries joined in 2026 alone. In September, PAPSS said it plans to connect to Egypt’s InstaPay, linking the continent’s local-currency settlement rail to one of its largest domestic instant payment networks.
The gap between volume and value growth tells the story: PAPSS is gaining smaller, more frequent transactions, the profile of SME and retail trade rather than large corporate flows. That is the segment where dollar intermediation costs bite hardest. Management says the next phase is about adoption and priority corridors. For exporters and trade financiers, the test is whether banks actively offer PAPSS at the counter. The strategy will be set out at PAPSS COWRY in Addis Ababa on November 26 and 27.
Digital Government · Kenya
Kenya Pivots From Digitising Services to Connecting Them
Kenya’s DPI roadmap was the focus of the Digital Transformation Public Sector Forum on October 1, with Immigration PS Dr Richard Belio Kipsang and Broadcasting and Telecommunications PS Steve Isaboke setting out a three-part approach: access, trust, and interoperability. The plan moves away from standalone government systems toward shared rails built on common standards and open APIs, combining digital identity, payments, data exchange, and digital credentials.
The shift from digitising individual services to connecting them is where the commercial opening lies for system integrators, API providers, and fintechs that can plug into verified identity. The governance risk is real: Kenya’s previous ID scheme, Huduma Namba, was ruled unlawful over data protection failures, and its Maisha Namba successor has faced court challenges. Watch for data-sharing regulations and whether private firms gain authenticated access to government identity APIs.
Trade and Policy
Payment Sovereignty · WAEMU
West Africa’s Card-Routing Deadline Arrives for Visa and Mastercard
WAEMU’s Decision 31, adopted in 2015 and now enforced, requires every card transaction using a card issued in the eight-country union to be routed and cleared in CFA francs through the regional GIM-UEMOA switch, even when Visa or Mastercard processes it. Regional authorities had set a March 31 compliance date. Visa and Mastercard requested an extension to October 2026, which makes this month the effective deadline. Visa’s regional head said in July that compliance was a matter of months.
The rationale is straightforward: 82% of card payments in 2024 took place inside the union, yet much of that clearing ran through foreign infrastructure. Bringing it home retains fees and data in the region. Eight banks completed the first compliant e-commerce transactions in May. The transition has not been seamless. Air Sénégal temporarily reported problems accepting locally issued cards online during its compliance work. Merchants, airlines, and e-commerce platforms selling into Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and the wider union should test acceptance now. Separately, the BCEAO is piloting cross-border instant payments with more than 80 WAEMU banks, anchored on its PI-SPI platform and PAPSS.
Country Spotlight
IOA describes Ethiopia as a powerful but troubled Horn of Africa state. It is projected to rank among Africa’s five largest economies by 2030 and has the continent’s second-largest population. The shift to a floating exchange rate since 2024 has reduced forex distortions and improved investor confidence, and the government has begun replacing capital thresholds in trade and retail with a due diligence regime. Conflict in Tigray, restrictions on political rights, and frequent internet shutdowns remain material risks.
Ethiopia is now the clearest African case of DPI as a commercial asset. Fayda registrations have passed 46 million, up from 16.4 million in June 2025, with more than 150 enterprise integrations and over 190 million authentications. In August the programme became Faydaverse, a state-owned enterprise inside the sovereign fund, targeting 90 million registrations. Every bank account must be Fayda-linked by December 31. On October 7, Visa and ETTA Solutions announced 148,000 contactless devices that double as tax-certified cash registers, with merchant transaction data feeding credit profiles for working-capital loans.
Opportunities: A large, young domestic market and labour force. Expanding air and rail connectivity across the region. Digital payments, merchant acquiring, eKYC services, and SME lending built on Fayda and newly digitised merchant networks. Manufacturing incentives including 2 to 5 year income tax exemptions.
Risks: Ongoing ethnic conflict and humanitarian crisis, particularly in Tigray. Restrictions on political rights and media, with frequent internet shutdowns that disrupt digital services. Climate exposure across the Horn of Africa. Data protection and cybersecurity standards still maturing as identity data centralises.
Operating Tips: Foreign company registration through the Ethiopian Investment Commission requires a business plan and capital of US$150,000 to US$200,000 depending on sector. Relationships and rapport precede negotiation, and aggressive bargaining is discouraged. Build Fayda-based KYC into any consumer or financial product launched in 2026 and 2027.
Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full Ethiopia profile, including IOA’s sample research report.
In Brief
- Nigeria · Digital Identity» On September 16, the Presidency set December 2026 as the deadline to cover 95% of the population with a NIN, as the register passed 140 million identities. Free enrolment now runs in all 8,809 wards, and the NIMC Act 2026 mandates NIN use in critical sectors, including financial services. The gap to target is still large, and the NIMS 2.0 system upgrade needs roughly 18 months, so expect identity verification to remain a bottleneck for fintech onboarding into 2027. Source
- Uganda · Government Procurement» Digital Government Africa 2026 is running October 6 to 8 in Kampala under the patronage of the Ugandan government, built around pre-arranged meetings between African officials and suppliers of digital ID, e-government, electronic payments, cybersecurity, and border technology. For vendors, it is a live signal of where public DPI budgets are being spent as countries move from strategy to deployment. Source
- Namibia · Zambia · South Africa · Digital Trust» Namibia launched its national public key infrastructure, DigiNam, on August 31, and Zambia completed its production key ceremony days later, giving both countries a national root of trust for digital signatures and certificates. South Africa, the region’s largest economy, has no equivalent in production: draft regulations for its MyMzansi smartphone ID were gazetted in May, with rollout targeted for 2027/2028. For firms building e-signature and remote onboarding services, smaller SADC markets are now ahead. Source
What Investors Should Watch
- WAEMU Card Routing · October Deadline» Visa and Mastercard’s extension under Decision 31 runs to October 2026. Watch whether both networks confirm full compliance or seek further time, and whether the BCEAO enforces penalties. A clean transition validates the regional payment sovereignty model and is likely to encourage similar rules in CEMAC and elsewhere. A messy one would disrupt cross-border e-commerce and travel payments across the union.
- Year-End Identity Deadlines · Nigeria and Ethiopia» Nigeria’s government has set a 95% NIN coverage target for December, and Ethiopian banks must link every account to Fayda by December 31. Shortfalls could trigger grace periods, account restrictions, or programme restructuring. Banks and telcos with large legacy customer bases in either market should model the impact of unlinked accounts on deposits and active users.
- DPI Financing · Bangkok and Addis Ababa» The IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings run October 12 to 18 in Bangkok, bringing African finance ministers and central bank governors together with the lenders that co-finance most national ID programmes, including Nigeria’s $430 million ID4D project. Six weeks later, PAPSS COWRY in Addis Ababa (November 26 to 27) will set the network’s commercial adoption strategy. Watch for new multilateral DPI financing commitments and named PAPSS payment corridors.
Researched with AI. Edited by humans. All stories verified against primary sources before publication.
Doing Business in Africa
Edition 016 · October 8, 2026
Sources: TechCentral · BusinessTech · eNCA · ThisDay · Capital Ethiopia · TechAfrica News · TechTrends Kenya · Ahram Online · Ecofin Agency · Financial Afrik · AfricaNenda · Business Daily Africa ·
Country Intelligence: Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series, contributed by In On Africa (IOA)
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